产新季来临价格承压 中药材市场深度调整

Core Insights - The traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) market is entering a critical period for production and sales, facing ongoing adjustments due to intensified supply-demand conflicts and strengthened policy guidance [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The peak production period is expected to lead to a significant short-term increase in supply, with an estimated total production of approximately 5.8 million tons by 2025, while market demand is only about 5 million tons, resulting in an overall surplus rate of 16% [2] - The autumn harvest season in October will further highlight the supply-demand imbalance, leading to continued pressure on market prices [2] - Major varieties such as Angelica, Astragalus, and Codonopsis are expected to see a significant increase in supply as new crops are harvested [2] Group 2: Procurement Strategies and Price Adjustments - Under the backdrop of centralized procurement, TCM companies are adopting conservative procurement strategies to control raw material costs, with the second round of national centralized procurement for TCM decoction pieces already initiated [3] - This centralized procurement is expected to cover a wider range of products, prompting companies to reduce costs and improve efficiency through standardization, indicating a new round of price adjustments in the TCM industry [3] - The price bottoming trend for TCM materials may persist until the end of 2025 or even into 2026, particularly as root and rhizome materials are fully harvested [3] Group 3: Industry Transformation and Quality Standards - The TCM industry is accelerating its transformation, with initiatives like Zhejiang's "Zhejiang Eight Flavors" project aimed at establishing quality standards for TCM materials [4] - The implementation of Good Agricultural Practices (GAP) for TCM is being promoted nationwide to ensure quality, with various regions actively developing GAP bases [4] - Companies are increasingly focusing on establishing high-standard TCM planting bases to ensure the quality and traceability of authentic medicinal materials, which is crucial for building product barriers and advancing the modernization of TCM [5][6] Group 4: Long-term Industry Outlook - The TCM market is currently in a deep adjustment phase due to multiple factors, including production pressure, weak demand, capital withdrawal, and policy guidance [6] - The industry is expected to gradually move towards a path of standardization, branding, and quality improvement, with "high quality and high price" becoming the mainstream trend [6] - Industry participants are encouraged to adapt to policy directions and focus on high-quality and specialty varieties to seize opportunities in the ongoing industry restructuring [6]