Prediction markets see cloudy outlook as traders bet on extended shutdown

Core Insights - Traders on prediction platforms are betting that the federal government shutdown will extend into next month, with a significant portion expecting it to last over 40 days [1][4][5] - The trading volume on these prediction markets is substantial, exceeding $8.1 million, indicating strong interest and speculation among traders [4] - The current government shutdown began on October 7, affecting federal workers in nonessential roles, and historically, such shutdowns are temporary [9][11] Prediction Market Insights - On Kalshi, traders assign a 65% probability that the shutdown will last until October 31, with 52% betting it will extend just over 36 days [1] - Approximately 44% of traders anticipate the shutdown will exceed 40 days, while 100% of traders on Polymarket expect it to last at least until October 15 [4][5] - The largest group of traders, about 26%, is betting that the shutdown will continue until November 16 [7] Historical Context - The U.S. government has experienced 20 shutdowns since 1976, with the most recent and longest one lasting 34 days due to a funding dispute over Trump's border wall [11][12]