Oil bosses expect market surplus to shrink over time

Core Viewpoint - The global oil market is expected to tighten in the medium to long term despite current short-term weaknesses due to rising output from OPEC+ and other producers, alongside reduced demand from trade tensions [1][2]. Short-Term Weakness - Brent futures are trading around $62 per barrel, down over $15 from a year ago, with a forecasted surplus of 4 million barrels per day for 2026 [2]. - Executives from Vitol, Trafigura, and Gunvor predict oil prices will weaken further before recovering, estimating a price range of $62-66.50 per barrel in one year [3]. - Gunvor's CEO noted that prices are expected to decline slightly more due to rising OPEC production and increased spare capacity from Saudi Arabia and the UAE [3]. Price Predictions - Trafigura's head of oil suggested prices could dip into the $50s during the holiday season but warned against betting on prices falling below $50 [4]. - Vitol's CEO highlighted that while the market is focused on rising supplies, low inventories in the West and strong demand for refined products have kept the market in backwardation [4]. Medium-Term Outlook - TotalEnergies' CEO expressed a bullish outlook for the medium term, citing production declines and no peak in global oil demand [6]. - ExxonMobil's CEO warned that decline rates could reach 15% per year without investment in unconventional oil and gas fields [6]. - Saudi Aramco's CEO emphasized the need for long-term investments in supply to meet resilient demand [6].