Fed Chair Powell worried about hiring slowdown — a sign more rate cuts are coming

Core Viewpoint - A significant slowdown in hiring is raising concerns for the US economy, leading to expectations that the Federal Reserve will likely cut its key interest rate two more times this year [1][2]. Economic Outlook - Despite the federal government shutdown affecting the availability of official economic data, the outlook for employment and inflation remains largely unchanged since the Fed's September meeting [1][4]. - The Fed's preferred measure of inflation has risen to 2.9% due to tariffs, but there are no broader inflationary pressures expected to keep prices elevated [5]. Interest Rate Policy - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce its key interest rate twice more this year and once in 2026 [2]. - Lower interest rates could decrease borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans, and business loans, potentially stimulating economic activity [4]. Balance Sheet Management - The Fed may soon halt the reduction of its approximately $6.6 trillion balance sheet, which has involved allowing around $40 billion of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to mature each month without replacement [6]. - This shift could impact longer-term Treasury interest rates [6]. Criticism of Past Actions - The Fed's previous purchases of longer-term Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities during the pandemic have faced criticism for exacerbating inequality and failing to provide significant economic benefits [8][12]. - Critics argue that the Fed maintained low interest rates for too long, contributing to inflation spikes that began in late 2021 [9]. - Powell acknowledged that the Fed could have stopped asset purchases sooner, indicating that decisions were made to mitigate downside risks [11].