合成橡胶：成本支撑减弱 且供需偏宽松 预计BR震荡偏弱

Core Viewpoint - The current market for butadiene and synthetic rubber is experiencing downward pressure due to increased supply and weakened demand, influenced by recent economic tensions between the US and China [5] Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of October 13, butadiene prices in Shandong market are at 8550 (-50) CNY/ton, CIF China price at 1020 (+0) USD/ton, and the price for BR9000 synthetic rubber at 11150 (-50) CNY/ton, with a price spread of -3300 (+250) CNY/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In September, China's butadiene production was 440,300 tons, down 3.6% month-on-month, while synthetic rubber production was 130,300 tons, down 3.9% month-on-month. The production of semi-steel tires was 60.25 million units, up 3.8% month-on-month, and full-steel tires at 13.14 million units, up 0.8% month-on-month [2] - As of October 10, operating rates in the synthetic rubber industry have declined, with butadiene industry operating rate at 67.4% (+1.1%), high cis-butadiene rubber at 74.7% (+5.9%), semi-steel tire manufacturers at 42.2% (-29.3%), and full-steel tire manufacturers at 41.5% (-25%) [2] Inventory Levels - As of October 9, butadiene port inventory stands at 27,750 tons, with no change, while synthetic rubber factory inventory is at 26,600 tons, also unchanged, and trader inventory at 5,700 tons, remaining the same [3] Industry News - According to Longzhong Information, Qilu Petrochemical's 70,000 tons/year high cis-butadiene rubber unit has been shut down for maintenance since October 10 for approximately 17 days [4] Analysis - On October 13, the escalation of US-China trade tensions negatively impacted the commodity market, leading to a significant drop in BR prices, with the main contract BR2511 closing at 10,920 CNY/ton, down 2.89% from the previous settlement price. The domestic butadiene market is currently well-supplied, and expectations of incoming shipments are contributing to downward pressure on prices. Although there are anticipated maintenance shutdowns in the synthetic rubber sector, production is expected to recover post-mid-October as previously shut units restart operations [5]