Core Insights - The stainless steel market is experiencing price declines, with 304 cold-rolled prices in Wuxi and Foshan both at 13,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Nickel ore prices remain firm, with domestic nickel ore benchmark prices expected to rise by 0.2-0.3 USD in September, while nickel iron prices are stable around 950-960 yuan/nickel [1][3] - Domestic stainless steel production is increasing, with an estimated output of 3.45 million tons in September, a month-on-month increase of 4.09% and a year-on-year increase of 5.07% [1] Raw Materials - Nickel ore transaction volumes have increased, with Philippine shipments showing decent efficiency, while Indonesian nickel ore supply is relatively ample but with declining grades [1] - The market for nickel iron is characterized by limited transactions and significant price negotiation differences between supply and demand [1] Supply Dynamics - Stainless steel production is projected to rise to 3.49 million tons in October, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.06% and a year-on-year increase of 5.99% [1] - The 300 series production is expected to reach 1.82 million tons in October, with a month-on-month increase of 0.38% and a year-on-year increase of 7.86% [1] Inventory Trends - Social inventory reduction is slow, with 300 series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan at 504,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 32,700 tons [2] - Stainless steel futures inventory decreased to 85,166 tons, down 2,339 tons week-on-week [2] Market Sentiment - The stainless steel market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with current spot prices generally below the latest agent prices, leading to reduced willingness among traders to adjust prices [3] - Despite seasonal and policy factors improving demand expectations, the actual demand during the peak season has not significantly increased, leading to pressure on inventory reduction [3]
不锈钢：宏观风险放大 产业需求兑现仍不足
Jin Tou Wang·2025-10-14 02:08