国债期货：避险情绪降温，现券利率回升

Market Performance - Government bond futures opened high but closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.37%, initially up by 0.70%. The 10-year main contract increased by 0.10%, initially up by 0.25%. The 5-year main contract rose by 0.03%, and the 2-year main contract increased by 0.02% [1] - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market saw a rebound in yields, with the 10-year policy bank bond "25 Guokai 15" yield rising by 1.7 basis points to 1.9430%, the 10-year government bond "25 Fuxi Guojia 11" yield up by 1.6 basis points to 1.7590%, and the 30-year government bond "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 02" yield increasing by 3 basis points to 2.1140% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 137.8 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on October 13, with a fixed rate of 1.40% and a full bid amount of 137.8 billion yuan. There were no reverse repos maturing that day, resulting in a net injection of 137.8 billion yuan [2] - The interbank market maintained a loose funding condition, with overnight repo rates for deposit institutions hovering around 1.30%. Non-bank institutions borrowed overnight using credit bonds as collateral, with rates dropping to the 1.46%-1.48% range [2] - There is a certain demand for one-year interbank certificates of deposit at 1.66% from national and major joint-stock banks, with the latest transaction rates in the secondary market for the same term at 1.655%-1.66%, slightly down from the previous day [2] News Developments - According to customs data, China's exports in September (in RMB terms) grew by 8.4% year-on-year, up from a previous increase of 4.8%. Imports rose by 7.5%, compared to a prior increase of 1.7%. The trade surplus was 645.47 billion yuan, down from 732.68 billion yuan [3] - In USD terms, China's September exports increased by 8.3%, up from 4.4% previously, while imports grew by 7.4%, compared to a prior increase of 1.3% [3] - U.S. President Trump hinted at the possibility of canceling new tariffs on China, leading to a rise in U.S. stock index futures. Trump stated on social media not to worry about China, indicating that everything would be fine [3] Operational Recommendations - Recent signals from both China and the U.S. have been relatively mild, leading to a correction in the risk-averse sentiment previously caused by tariff conflicts, which in turn weakened the bond market [4] - The bond market outlook is complex, with attention needed on the implementation of new fund redemption fee regulations, changes in market risk appetite, and potential fluctuations in U.S.-China relations. However, the current loose funding conditions and the normalization of the yield curve limit the extent of long bond declines [4] - If the 10-year government bond yield rises above 1.8%, there may be a recovery in allocation value. Short-term treasury bonds are expected to continue fluctuating within a range, with T2512 likely maintaining a range of 107.4-108.3, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for potential adjustments [4]