Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-14 02:12Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that after the National Day holiday, the price of hexafluoropropylene has increased to 73,000 yuan per ton, a 15% rise from the September low, with Q4 industry operating rates expected to remain above 85% [1] - Research from brokerage firms highlights that from June to September, the industry actively reduced inventory, with mainstream manufacturers' stock levels dropping to 7 days, which is 15 days below the safety stock level, and a reduction and maintenance scale exceeding 20,000 tons in Q4, accounting for 20% of quarterly supply [1] - In terms of exports, the hexafluoropropylene export volume in September increased by 22% month-on-month, with Japanese and South Korean battery manufacturers securing orders in advance to alleviate domestic seasonal demand shortages [1] - The cost curve is steep, with cash costs at 65,000 yuan per ton; if prices rise to 85,000 yuan per ton, leading companies could see a net profit recovery of 12,000 yuan per ton, with Tianji Co.'s 45,000-ton capacity corresponding to an annual profit of 540 million yuan, and a 2026 PE of only 8x, making it the most elastic stock in the sector [1] - A review of the 2019-2021 cycle shows that hexafluoropropylene prices led electrolyte price increases by 3-4 months, and if lithium battery demand grows moderately in Q2 2026, the price difference between hexafluoropropylene and electrolyte is expected to replicate the 2021 market trend [1] Group 2 - As of October 14, 2025, the CSI sub-sector chemical industry theme index (000813) has surged by 1.46%, with component stocks such as Kangbang Biological (603077) rising by 7.14%, Salt Lake Co. (000792) by 7.02%, and Yaqi International (000893) by 4.73% [2] - The largest chemical ETF (159870) has increased by 1.51%, with the latest price reported at 0.74 yuan, closely tracking the CSI sub-sector chemical industry theme index [2] - The CSI sub-sector theme index series consists of seven indices, including sub-sector indices for non-ferrous metals and machinery, selecting larger and more liquid listed company securities from relevant sub-industries to reflect the overall performance of listed companies in those sectors [2]