航司今年受供应链扰动影响增加成本超百亿美元

Core Insights - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts that slow supply chain production will lead to an increase in airline industry costs exceeding $11 billion by 2025 [1][2] - IATA's Director General Willie Walsh has expressed dissatisfaction with the current state of the international aviation supply chain, highlighting significant delays in aircraft, engine, and parts deliveries [1][2] - The backlog of global commercial aircraft orders has reached a historic high of over 17,000 units in 2024, significantly higher than the average backlog of approximately 13,000 units from 2010 to 2019 [1] Cost Breakdown - Additional fuel costs are projected to be the highest at approximately $4.2 billion, resulting from delays in new aircraft deliveries, forcing airlines to operate older, less fuel-efficient planes [2] - Extra maintenance costs are estimated at $3.1 billion due to the aging fleet requiring more frequent and expensive maintenance [2] - Engine leasing costs are expected to rise by $2.6 billion as older engines remain grounded longer during maintenance, with leasing rates increasing by 20% to 30% since 2019 [2] - Inventory holding costs are projected to increase by $1.4 billion as airlines stockpile more spare parts to mitigate supply chain uncertainties [2] Demand and Capacity - Passenger demand is expected to grow by 10.4% in 2024, outpacing capacity growth of 8.7%, leading to a record load factor of 83.5% [2] - The upward trend in passenger demand is anticipated to continue throughout 2025 [2] Root Causes - The current challenges in the aviation supply chain are attributed to factors such as the economic model of the aviation manufacturing industry, geopolitical instability, raw material shortages, and a tight labor market [2] Proposed Solutions - IATA suggests several measures to alleviate supply chain issues, including opening the aftermarket to provide airlines with more parts and service options [3] - Enhancing supply chain transparency is recommended to provide airlines with necessary data to overcome bottlenecks and assist original equipment manufacturers [3] - The aviation manufacturing industry is encouraged to implement actions such as reducing reliance on original equipment manufacturers for maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services, and increasing alternative material and service sources [3] - Utilizing predictive maintenance insights, sharing spare parts inventory, and establishing shared maintenance data platforms are proposed to optimize inventory and reduce downtime [3] - Accelerating repair approvals and supporting the use of alternative parts and second-hand materials (USM) are also suggested to alleviate bottlenecks [3] Collaborative Efforts - IATA emphasizes the need for strategic collaboration among all stakeholders in the aviation manufacturing industry to address complex challenges [3] - Matthew Poitras from Oliver Wyman highlights the opportunity for improvement in supply chain performance through collective efforts to reshape the structure of the aviation manufacturing industry [3]