Prediction: Geopolitical Tensions Could Create the Next Wave of AI Winners

Group 1: TSMC's Position and Strategy - Demand for advanced chip manufacturing is rising sharply, and TSMC is well positioned to benefit from these trends due to its status as the world's largest third-party chip foundry [1] - TSMC is investing almost $165 billion in the U.S. to expand its advanced manufacturing capacity, including six advanced wafer fabs and two advanced packaging facilities in Arizona [7] - TSMC's geographic expansion aims to maintain its role as a neutral and trusted foundry partner, with overseas fabs expected to impact gross margins by 2% to 3% annually in early stages [8] Group 2: Advanced Technology Development - TSMC is focused on introducing advanced process nodes, including the 2-nanometer (N2) node, which is on track for volume production in the second half of 2025 [9] - The A16 chip, which offers significant improvements in power efficiency, is expected to begin volume production in the second half of 2026 [9] - Higher-margin advanced process nodes (7-nanometer and below) already contribute nearly 74% of wafer revenue, supporting TSMC's long-term gross margin target of 53% or higher [8] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Growth Potential - Global trade tensions are reshaping supply chains, prompting countries to invest in regional manufacturing capacity, which presents new growth opportunities for the technology sector [4] - The demand for AI-grade computing power has escalated dramatically, with significant investments from the European Union and the U.S. government to promote AI initiatives and advanced chip manufacturing [3] - TSMC trades at about 26.2 times forward earnings, indicating significant room for share price growth given the explosive demand for its cutting-edge chips [10] Group 4: Snowflake's Market Position - Snowflake is well positioned to benefit from increasing data localization laws, as its AI Data Cloud is designed to be secure and compliance-driven [12] - The company's product revenue grew by 32% year over year to $1.09 billion in its fiscal 2026 second quarter, highlighting strong revenue visibility [14] - Snowflake's AI capabilities have driven almost half of all new customer wins in Q2, with a net revenue retention of 125%, indicating strong customer spending growth [15]