Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, may end its balance sheet reduction process in the coming months to prevent liquidity issues in short-term funding markets, indicating a potential shift in its quantitative tightening (QT) policy and reinforcing expectations for another rate cut this month [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Actions - Powell stated that the Fed's long-term plan is to stop balance sheet reduction when bank reserves are "slightly above adequate levels," which is nearing that point [1] - The Fed has been gradually reducing its holdings of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities since 2022 to withdraw liquidity injected during the pandemic, with a slowdown in the pace of reduction earlier this year [1] - Powell emphasized the importance of paying interest on reserves as a monetary policy tool to maintain control over short-term rates and financial stability [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Powell noted that since the September meeting, inflation and employment conditions in the U.S. have not changed significantly, but signs of weakness in the labor market are becoming more apparent [2] - The latest data revisions show a notable slowdown in job growth, increasing the downside risks in the labor market [2] - Due to a government shutdown affecting official economic data, the Fed is relying on unofficial channels to assess economic trends, which poses challenges for policy decisions [2] Group 3: Future Rate Cuts - Most Fed officials currently lean towards a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming meeting on October 28-29, with investors expecting this decision to be almost certain [3] - Analysts suggest that Powell's recent remarks aim to set market expectations in advance, indicating that if labor market weakness persists, the Fed may consider more significant easing actions by year-end while remaining flexible and cautious to prevent excessive market speculation on continuous rate cuts [3]
美联储主席鲍威尔：未来数月内或结束缩表 劳动力市场疲软迹象进一步显现
智通财经网·2025-10-14 22:23