鲍威尔释放鸽派信号

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed may halt the reduction of its balance sheet in the coming months, supporting investor expectations for another rate cut this month [2][5]. Economic Outlook - Powell noted that the outlook for inflation and employment has remained largely unchanged since the last meeting in September, emphasizing increasing signs of a weakening labor market [2][3]. - The Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points last month, marking the first cut of 2025, which Powell described as a "risk management" move to support the weakening labor market [2]. Labor Market Concerns - Powell reiterated that "downside risks to employment appear to be rising," citing low levels of layoffs and hiring, as well as declining perceptions of job opportunities among residents and recruitment difficulties among businesses [3]. - The government shutdown has hindered the release of official economic statistics, leading the Fed to monitor non-government data sources, which may pose challenges if the situation persists [3]. Diverging Views Among Officials - There are differing opinions among Fed officials regarding the appropriate policy path, with some advocating for further rate cuts while others express caution due to potential inflationary pressures from tariffs and the persistent inflation above the 2% target [3]. Market Reaction - Following Powell's speech, U.S. stock indices rebounded, with the Dow Jones erasing a decline of approximately 600 points [4]. - Analysts noted that Powell's remarks reinforced expectations for a rate cut in October, with various financial institutions confirming a dovish shift in policy tone [5].