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华泰证券:化工行业9月“旺季不旺”,2026年景气或上行
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen·2025-10-14 23:45

Core Viewpoint - The overall price spread in the industry remains weak as of September, with a gradual recovery in the midstream sector. The CCPI-raw material price spread is at 2439, below the 30th percentile since 2012, indicating weak downstream demand and a notable "off-peak" characteristic in the industry [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The chemical product prices continue to show relative weakness, primarily due to weak overall downstream demand [1] - Price increases in September were mainly driven by supply-side reductions and strong overseas demand for certain products [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The industry is believed to be at the bottom of its profitability cycle, with potential improvements expected due to supply-side adjustments under policies aimed at reducing competition [1] - Medium to long-term growth is anticipated from the exit of high-energy-consuming facilities in Europe and the U.S., along with economic growth in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, making exports a significant growth engine for the domestic chemical industry [1] - Capital expenditure growth in the industry has been declining since June 2025, and with accelerated supply-side adjustments, an upturn in industry prosperity is expected in 2026 [1]