凌晨！美联储，释放降息大消息

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a potential for interest rate cuts this month due to a deteriorating labor market, despite the impact of the government shutdown on economic assessments [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Powell's remarks reinforced expectations for further rate cuts, with a 97.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October according to CME FedWatch [1][7] - Analysts believe Powell's statements have paved the way for the Fed to announce the end of its balance sheet reduction at the upcoming policy meeting [6] - The market is increasingly confident in a rate cut, with some analysts stating that the October cut is almost certain given the ongoing risks in the labor market [6][7] Group 2: Labor Market Insights - Powell noted that the employment and inflation outlook has not changed significantly since the last meeting, but risks to employment have increased [2][3] - He emphasized the slow hiring pace and the likelihood of a further decline in the unemployment rate, with job vacancies decreasing [2] - The government shutdown has led to missing non-farm payroll data, making private sector employment reports the primary source of employment data [2] Group 3: Quantitative Tightening (QT) Status - Powell suggested that the Fed's long-standing plan for balance sheet reduction may be nearing its end, with careful monitoring of liquidity indicators [4][5] - He acknowledged signs of tightening liquidity but assured that the Fed would take cautious measures to avoid a repeat of the 2019 market stress [4][5] - Since mid-2022, the Fed has been reducing liquidity through QT, with the balance sheet currently at $6.6 trillion [4]