煤炭行业四季度底部明确，反弹可期

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is expected to experience a slight decline in production in 2025, with a projected total output of approximately 4.71 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% due to various supply and demand factors [1][3][4]. Supply - In July, the national raw coal output was 380 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 40 million tons (-9.5%) and a year-on-year decrease of 9 million tons (-3.8%). In August, the output was 390 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of about 6 million tons (-3.2%) but a month-on-month increase of 9 million tons (+2.5%) [1][3]. - The average monthly production from January to June 2025 is estimated at 401 million tons, while the average for July and August is 386 million tons. If safety inspections remain at July levels, the estimated average for September to December is also 386 million tons, leading to an annual output of about 4.71 billion tons in 2025 [1][3]. - The reduction in output is primarily from Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, with expected year-on-year declines of 3.7% and 4.6%, respectively. Coal imports are projected to decrease by approximately 15.8% in 2025, mainly due to reduced imports from Indonesia [3]. Demand - There is an expectation of increased demand due to a cold winter, with the total electricity consumption projected to grow by 5%-6% year-on-year in 2025. The demand for chemical coal remains high, with significant year-on-year increases in coal-based PVC, ethylene glycol, and methanol production [4][5]. - The average daily pig iron production is expected to remain above 240,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [5]. Inventory - Inventory pressures have eased significantly compared to the first half of the year, supporting a rebound in coal prices. Mainstream port inventories have decreased to 60.43 million tons, down from mid-May highs, and are lower than the same period last year [5]. Price - Expectations of supply contraction are raising the bottom for coal prices, with seasonal demand potentially opening up upward price movement. The central price for thermal coal is anticipated to reach 750 yuan/ton in the fourth quarter [5]. Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is currently at a cyclical low with high PE and low PB ratios, indicating potential for rebound as coal prices rise. Recommended stocks include flexible targets like Yanzhou Coal, Jin控 Coal, and Shanxi Coal International, as well as growth-oriented stocks like Electric Power Investment and Huayang Co., and stable long-term investments such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal [6].