新能源下游需求依旧向好，关注新能源车ETF（159806）

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline of 4.61% in the new energy vehicle ETF (159806) is primarily influenced by market sentiment and style changes [1] Demand Side - In the first half of the year, global energy storage cell shipments reached 226 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 97%, with some cell manufacturers operating at full capacity [1] - Domestic energy storage orders exceeded 160 GWh in the first half, marking a year-on-year increase of 220.28% [1] - Global power battery installation volume was 504.4 GWh in the first half, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 37.3%, as the domestic new energy vehicle market enters the traditional sales peak season of "golden September and silver October" [1] Battery Sector - According to Xinluo Lithium Battery data, the average production forecast for batteries and materials in October shows increases both month-on-month and year-on-year, with battery production up 7.1%/37.1%, positive electrode up 0.7%/21.1%, negative electrode up 5.8%/49.5%, separator up 4.3%/31.4%, and electrolyte up 4.2%/46.3% [1] Material Sector - The recent price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has risen to around 70,000, with long-term contract prices expected to follow suit [1] - Some companies in the iron-lithium positive electrode sector are also considering price increases, likely benefiting from self-discipline against excessive competition [1] Export Control - The products subject to export controls are generally high-performance items, marking an important step for China from scale leadership to technological dominance [1] - The core purpose of the export controls is to protect domestic high-end technology; the controls do not equate to a ban, indicating more strategic significance than actual impact [1] Overall Market Sentiment - Overall, there are no significant negative fundamentals, with limited impact from export controls and continued positive downstream demand [2] - However, the current market position is relatively high, and the sector has gradually shifted from performance-driven to valuation-driven, which may lead to increased market volatility [2] - Interested investors may consider opportunistic investments in the new energy vehicle ETF (159806) and the 20cm ChiNext new energy ETF Guotai (159387), with combined storage and solid-state content exceeding 65% [2]