油价重心趋于回落，关注“银十”兑现情况

Core Insights - In September, Brent and WTI average prices were $67.6 and $63.6 per barrel, with month-on-month changes of 0.5% and -0.7% respectively [2] - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October, marking the sixth consecutive month of production increase announcements [2] - Geopolitical tensions remain high due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, impacting oil supply dynamics [2] Supply Side - OPEC+ members are increasing production to capture a larger share of the global oil market, which is expected to raise global oil supply forecasts [2] - The Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to disruptions, including an attack on oil shipping facilities near Novorossiysk, affecting approximately 2 million barrels per day of oil exports [2] Demand Side - Oil consumption is transitioning into the off-season, with expected weakening demand momentum [2] - As of September 26, U.S. refinery utilization was at 91.4%, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points from the end of August, indicating potential seasonal declines ahead [2] Inventory - As of the week ending September 26, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories stood at 416.55 million barrels, down by 4.16 million barrels since the end of August [2] Price Outlook - The oil market is currently influenced by geopolitical disturbances, OPEC+ production increases, and weakening demand, with October Brent crude oil prices expected to range between $60 and $67 per barrel [2] - The industry cost structure may slightly decrease, while seasonal demand is anticipated to strengthen in the "golden September and silver October" period [4] Investment Recommendations - Investment opportunities are suggested in sectors such as private refining, polyester filament, and modified plastics, with specific companies like Rongsheng Petrochemical, Xinfengming, and Guoen Co., Ltd. highlighted for potential investment [4]