鲍威尔讲话提振降息押注 10年期美债收益率盘中跌破4%

Core Viewpoint - The statements made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on October 14 have set the stage for a potential interest rate cut in October, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Powell acknowledged the ongoing deterioration in the U.S. labor market and indicated that the Federal Reserve may halt balance sheet reduction in the coming months [1]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 1.35 basis points to 4.0187%, with intraday trading dipping below 4% [1]. - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 2.71 basis points to 3.4744% [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Powell's remarks suggest a flexible approach to monetary policy, emphasizing the need to balance employment and inflation targets without a predetermined path [1]. - The market anticipates a 97.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on October 28-29 [2]. - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman indicated expectations for two additional rate cuts by the end of the year, contingent on labor market and economic data [2].