房地产行业周报：多地推动“好房子”建设 国庆假期销售下降

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector is experiencing significant declines in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with a notable drop in credit bond issuance by real estate companies, indicating a challenging market environment [1][5]. Industry Fundamentals - In the week of October 3-9, the total transaction of new homes in 38 key cities tracked by Zhongtai Real Estate Group was 7,696 units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 40.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 72.6%. The total transaction area was 735,000 square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 40.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 75.8% [2]. - For the same week, the total transaction of second-hand homes in 16 key cities was 3,762 units, showing a year-on-year decrease of 47.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 71.7%. The total transaction area was 353,000 square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 45.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 72.2% [3]. - The inventory of commercial housing in 17 key cities was 189,561,000 square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% and a depletion cycle of 193.7 weeks. In terms of land supply, 4,778,000 square meters were supplied, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36.3%, with an average supply price of 1,726 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year increase of 9%. However, land transactions were significantly down, with 1,108,900 square meters sold, a year-on-year decrease of 71.1%, and a transaction amount of 33.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.7% [4]. Investment Recommendations - Recent policies have been introduced to promote the construction of "good houses." Due to the combined effects of the National Day holiday and high base effects from last year's policy stimulus, both new and second-hand home sales have seen substantial declines. The depletion cycle has increased significantly. Focus should remain on financially stable real estate companies with strong performance, such as Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and Greentown China, which can effectively navigate market fluctuations under the current policy environment. Additionally, as market demand recovers, property management companies are expected to see performance and valuation recovery, with attention on China Resources Mixc Life, China Overseas Property, and Poly Property [6].