9月：旺季需求拉动 指数温和回升

Core Insights - The oil and chemical industry prosperity index rose to 98.95 in September 2025, reflecting a mild recovery with a month-on-month increase of 0.52 percentage points [2][9][11] - The recovery is attributed to easing cost pressures and seasonal demand during the "golden September and silver October" period, which improved production activity and inventory turnover [2][9] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut of 25 basis points is expected to support global demand for petrochemical products by weakening the dollar and enhancing market sentiment [3][13] Industry Overview - The oil and gas extraction sector's index decreased to 99.15, down 0.32 percentage points from August, indicating ongoing challenges despite the overall industry recovery [6][9][11] - The fuel processing industry saw a significant increase in its index to 103.90, up 0.88 percentage points, driven by improved production and sales during the consumption peak [9][11] - The chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector's index rose to 99.39, up 0.86 percentage points, benefiting from enhanced production rates and inventory turnover [9][11] - The rubber, plastic, and other polymer products manufacturing sector's index increased to 93.21, up 0.55 percentage points, although it still faces structural pressures due to slow sales [9][11] Market Dynamics - OPEC+ has implemented a daily production increase of 547,000 barrels, contributing to a supply surplus in the oil market, while demand remains weak due to the end of the driving season in the U.S. [4][14] - Global manufacturing PMIs are below the growth threshold, indicating a sluggish demand environment that may keep oil prices under pressure [4][14] Future Outlook - The oil and chemical industry is expected to continue its mild recovery in October, contingent on sustained demand and effective inventory replenishment in downstream sectors [7][15] - The ongoing decline in raw material costs is anticipated to improve profit margins for downstream manufacturers, particularly in the chemical and polymer sectors [15]