【环球财经】9月澳大利亚经济活动领先指数增长率回升 明年初经济增长或接近趋势水平

Core Insights - The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index of Economic Activity for Australia shows a slight recovery in the six-month annualized growth rate, rising from -0.16% in August to 0.04% in September 2025, indicating potential economic growth approaching trend levels by early 2026 [1][2] Economic Activity - The leading index's growth rate has decreased by 0.44 percentage points over the past six months, from 0.48% in March to 0.04% in September, primarily due to declines in residential approvals and softening commodity prices [2] - Recent declines in residential approvals may be temporary, with low interest rates and government measures potentially stimulating the market in the future [2] - Commodity prices, particularly gold, have shown slight increases after significant drops earlier in the year, which may also support economic activity [2] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to consider interest rate cuts in its upcoming monetary policy meeting on November 3-4, depending largely on the third-quarter inflation data [3] - The leading index indicates a weakening economic growth momentum since the beginning of the year, suggesting that without further interest rate support, growth may fall below trend levels again [3]