Sugar Prices Sharply Lower as Supply Concerns Fade

Core Insights - Sugar prices have been declining, with NY sugar reaching a 3-week low and London sugar hitting a 4.25-year low, primarily due to increased sugar output in Brazil and favorable weather conditions in India [2][4]. Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - March NY world sugar 11 closed down by 0.49 (-3.04%), while December London ICE white sugar 5 fell by 6.40 (-1.42%) [1] - Sugar prices have been under pressure for the past seven months, with NY sugar posting a 4.5-year nearest-futures low last month [2] - The outlook for robust global sugar supplies is bearish for prices, with BMI Group projecting a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million metric tons (MMT) for 2025/26 [3] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of September rose by 15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons (MT) [2] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil's sugar mills increased to 53.49% in the second half of August from 47.74% the previous year [2] - Cumulative sugar output for 2025-26 through mid-September fell by 0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 MMT [2] Group 3: India's Sugar Production and Export Outlook - India's cumulative monsoon rainfall as of September 30 was 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating a strong monsoon that may lead to a bumper sugar crop [4] - India's sugar production for 2025/26 is projected to increase by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [4] - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar to ethanol production in 2025/26, which could lead to increased sugar exports, exceeding earlier expectations [5]