调查显示长期美债收益率料居高不下 因通胀与债务压力削弱降息预期

Core Viewpoint - A Reuters survey of 75 bond strategists indicates expectations for a decline in short-term U.S. Treasury yields due to anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, while long-term yields are expected to remain resilient due to persistent inflation, growing deficits, and concerns over Fed independence [1]. Group 1: Yield Predictions - The median forecast shows the current yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury is approximately 4.0%, expected to fluctuate around 4.1% in three to six months, and rise to 4.17% in one year [1]. - Long-term yield increases may exacerbate the deteriorating fiscal situation of the U.S. government [1]. Group 2: Economic Context - Analysts suggest that with strong economic growth and inflation rates significantly above the Fed's 2% target, current monetary policy cannot be considered highly restrictive [1]. - There are warnings against premature and excessive easing of policies, as it could reignite inflationary pressures and lead to surging yields, especially as the labor market shows signs of weakening [1].