Crude Prices Supported by Easing US-China Trade Tensions

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices increased on Monday, recovering from a significant drop the previous Friday, influenced by potential trade negotiations between the Trump administration and China, and geopolitical tensions involving Ukraine and Russia [2][3] Price Movements - November WTI crude oil closed up by $0.59 (+1.00%) and November RBOB gasoline closed up by $0.0012 (+0.39%) [1] Market Influences - The rise in crude prices was supported by improved market sentiment from a rally in stocks and the potential for a trade deal with China, while the strength of the dollar limited further price increases [2] - A decrease in tensions in the Middle East has reduced the risk premium in crude prices, as the likelihood of supply disruptions has diminished following agreements between Israel and Hamas [4] OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ agreed on October 5 to a modest increase of 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in crude production starting in November, which was below market expectations of a 500,000 bpd increase [5] - OPEC's crude production rose by 400,000 bpd in September to 29.05 million bpd, marking the highest level in 2.5 years [5] Geopolitical Factors - Reduced crude production in Russia, exacerbated by Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, has supported oil prices, limiting Russia's export capabilities [6] - Ukrainian actions have led to a decrease in Russia's refined-product flows to 1.94 million bpd in early September, the lowest monthly average in over 3.25 years [6]