Market Review - On Tuesday evening, soybean meal futures for the 2601 contract rose by 0.1%, closing at 2915 CNY/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - As of October 12, the European Commission reported that soybean imports for the 2025/26 season reached 3.41 million tons, a decrease of 7.3% compared to the same period last year. Soybean meal imports remained stable at 5.09 million tons year-on-year [2] - For the week ending October 10, the weekly delivery volume of soybean meal was 1.4619 million tons, a slight increase of 17,200 tons week-on-week, and an increase of 310,800 tons year-on-year, indicating a relatively high level in recent years [2] - According to foreign media, the Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association (ANEC) expects Brazil's soybean exports in October to reach 7.31 million tons, up from the previous week's estimate of 7.12 million tons. Soybean meal exports are projected at 2.06 million tons, higher than the previous week's estimate of 1.92 million tons [2] Institutional Perspectives - Guoxin Guozheng Futures noted that high levels of imported soybeans and the anticipated early arrival of Brazilian soybeans could alleviate concerns about future soybean supply shortages. Currently, there is insufficient upward momentum in the soybean meal futures market, and attention should be paid to developments in China-U.S. trade tensions and soybean arrival volumes [3] - Donghai Futures indicated that post-National Day, market sentiment improved due to downstream replenishment, but poor delivery performance has kept oil mill inventories under significant pressure. Additionally, soybean imports in the fourth quarter are expected to remain ample, making it difficult for the soybean meal 01 contract to see significant rebounds in low basis levels. If there is a lack of direction from U.S. soybeans, soybean meal may continue to experience low-level fluctuations [3]
油厂库存仍面临较大压力 豆粕期货上行驱动不足
Jin Tou Wang·2025-10-15 06:04