中东地缘政治风险缓解 燃料油暂震荡偏弱为主

Core Viewpoint - The fuel oil futures market is experiencing a weak performance, with the main contract declining by 1.69% to 2668.00 yuan/ton as of the report date [1]. Market Data Summary - As of October 14, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported low-sulfur fuel oil warehouse futures receipts at 13,080 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; total fuel oil futures receipts were 45,800 tons, also unchanged [2]. - In September, the total export volume of refined oil through Baltic ports decreased by 15.4% month-on-month to 4.36 million tons. Fuel oil exports through the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports fell by 23.2% month-on-month to 2.52 million tons [2]. - On October 14, the self-lifting low-sulfur price for fuel oil 180cst in Shanghai was quoted at 5,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The self-lifting low-sulfur price for fuel oil 120cst was quoted at 5,450 yuan/ton, also up by 150 yuan/ton [2]. Institutional Perspectives - According to Everbright Futures, the inflow of components used for blending low-sulfur fuel oil in the Singapore market continues to increase. Additionally, the autumn refinery maintenance in Asia has not significantly tightened local supply, resulting in ample supply of low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore. The high-sulfur fuel oil market structure remains firm due to stable downstream marine fuel activities and refining demand. In the short term, the fundamentals for high-sulfur fuel oil may remain slightly stronger than those for low-sulfur fuel oil. However, the pressure from new tariffs imposed by Trump is likely to keep both high and low-sulfur fuel oil prices in a weak oscillation [3]. - Southwest Futures noted that the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to support fuel oil prices, while the easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East has led to a decline in crude oil prices, subsequently dragging down fuel oil prices. The strategy suggested is to widen the price difference between high and low-sulfur fuel oil in the main contract [3].