欧洲央行管委：通胀高于2%的风险更大 不认为需要再降息

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that ECB's Gabriel Makhlouf is more concerned about inflation rates exceeding 2% rather than falling below it, despite current inflation being close to the target [1][2] - Makhlouf highlights that food inflation has been rising, currently around 3%, which is an area of particular concern [1] - He emphasizes that as long as medium-term inflation expectations remain anchored around 2%, the temporary dip below this target is not problematic [1] Group 2 - Makhlouf's comments reflect a cautious stance among policymakers regarding economic uncertainties, including tariffs, increased fiscal spending, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which could influence inflation in various directions [2] - He believes that inflation risks are "slightly skewed to the upside," contrasting with other ECB officials who see balanced risks [2] - Recent economic data has increased his confidence in the ECB's September forecasts, which predict GDP growth of 1.2% and 1% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [2] Group 3 - The ECB has maintained interest rates since June, with officials stating that the current 2% level appears appropriate, and analysts see little likelihood of further easing in the short term [2] - Makhlouf agrees with the market's assessment that the ECB is likely at a stage of achieving its targets, while acknowledging ongoing uncertainties [2][3] - Some ECB officials still consider the possibility of further rate cuts, with the French central bank governor suggesting that if action is needed, a rate cut is more likely than a hike due to greater downside risks [2]