Top analyst warns that ‘larger than expected correction is likely’ if Trump and China don’t kiss and make up

Core Viewpoint - A bearish outlook has been issued by a top Wall Street analyst due to renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China, indicating a potential larger-than-expected correction in U.S. equities if these tensions are not resolved [1][3]. Market Volatility - Recent weeks have seen a significant increase in volatility in U.S. stock markets, primarily driven by the escalation of the U.S.-China trade dispute, leading to the weakest index-level performance since spring [2][4]. - Aggressive selling was observed in the markets, particularly in stocks with high exposure to China, following news of China's tightening of rare earth mineral controls and a retaliatory tariff on Chinese products [2][4]. Correction Predictions - A correction in the market is deemed "overdue" due to stretched valuations, overly optimistic positioning, and unfavorable seasonal factors [3]. - If trade tensions persist into November, the S&P 500 could experience declines of 10% to 15%, with certain sectors facing even greater impacts [3]. Sector Vulnerability - The breakdown in trade talks is expected to affect specific sectors more severely, including semiconductors, quantum computing firms, and stocks with direct exposure to China [5]. - Consumer discretionary stocks are at risk due to their reliance on imports and the direct cost implications of tariffs [5]. Defensive Strategies - In light of ongoing policy uncertainty, a preference for defensive sectors such as health care and quality stocks is recommended as a hedge against potential market volatility [5].