关于降息，鲍威尔最近暗示！

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that despite the government shutdown affecting the Fed's grasp on economic conditions, the employment and inflation outlook in the U.S. appears largely unchanged, which has shifted market expectations regarding Fed policy direction [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - Powell emphasized that the Fed's interest rate policy does not follow a risk-free path and will be determined on a meeting-by-meeting basis, balancing employment and inflation targets [2]. - The Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points last month, marking the first rate cut in 2025, with officials projecting two more cuts this year [2]. - Following Powell's remarks, market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in October approached nearly 100% [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Powell stated that the Fed has alternative data sources to monitor the U.S. economy due to the government shutdown, noting that employment growth has significantly slowed while inflation remains slightly elevated [3]. - The Fed's assessment indicates that economic activity may be more robust than expected, but the lack of official data could pose challenges if the shutdown continues [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Powell's speech, U.S. stock indices rebounded, with the Dow erasing a decline of approximately 600 points, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut in October [3]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool showed a strong market consensus for a rate cut, confirming Powell's influence on market sentiment [2][3].