人民币汇率，强力新信号

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) signals a strong stabilization, with the central parity rate rising above 7.10 for the first time since late October of the previous year, indicating a potential new round of RMB appreciation [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - On October 15, the RMB central parity rate was reported at 7.0995, an increase of 26 points from the previous day, marking a significant upward movement [1]. - The offshore RMB against the US dollar saw a sharp increase, rising approximately 200 points within the day, while the onshore RMB remained stable around 7.12 [2]. - Key indicators reflecting domestic dollar liquidity, such as the year-on-year growth rate of foreign exchange deposits in domestic financial institutions, have surpassed the threshold of 6%-10%, suggesting the RMB is entering an appreciation cycle [2]. Group 2: Supportive Factors for RMB Stability - Multiple factors are expected to support the RMB's stability and potential appreciation, including the acceleration of new policy financial tools worth 500 billion yuan, which will help stabilize economic operations [3]. - The overall market expectations for the RMB remain stable, with a notable convergence of the central parity rate and onshore spot rates, indicating a reduction in divergence and a stable market outlook [4]. Group 3: USD Index Trends - The USD index has rebounded over 3% since the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on September 18, reaching a two-month high, driven by global uncertainties that enhance its safe-haven appeal [5]. - Analysts suggest that the recent strength of the USD index is largely a result of weakness in other currencies, particularly the euro and yen, influenced by domestic issues in Europe and expectations of monetary easing in Japan [5]. - Despite the current strength of the USD index, experts express concerns about its long-term outlook, citing risks associated with the prolonged government shutdown and potential impacts on economic data [6].