成本支撑尚不明显 预计PVC期货价格仍有下行空间

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is experiencing an increase in inventory levels and a mixed outlook on supply and demand, with expectations of price declines due to weak demand and rising supply pressures [1][2][3]. Group 1: Inventory and Production - As of October 9, the total inventory of PVC in sample warehouses in East and South China reached 937,500 tons, an increase of 4.81% from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 17.73% [1]. - The PVC operating rate increased by 3.66 percentage points to 82.63% compared to the period before the National Day holiday, indicating a higher-than-usual production level for this time of year [1]. - The average profit margin for PVC production using the calcium carbide method is -622 yuan/ton, while the ethylene method has an average profit margin of -538 yuan/ton [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - Domestic PVC production enterprises are planning fewer maintenance shutdowns this week, leading to an expected increase in overall supply [2]. - Downstream product manufacturers are maintaining low operating rates, with no signs of improvement in orders, leading to a recommendation for low-price procurement [2]. - The PVC market is facing downward price pressure due to weak demand and increased supply, with expectations of continued price declines [2][3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - New production facilities in Qingdao and Gansu are expected to increase supply pressure in the market [3]. - The domestic demand for PVC remains stable but weak, and escalating trade tensions may negatively impact exports of PVC products [3]. - The chlor-alkali integration still shows profitability, but cost support is not evident, leading to a weak market outlook for PVC [3].