钢材高库存带来负反馈预期 铁矿石震荡偏弱

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for black metals shows mixed performance, with iron ore futures experiencing a downward trend after a post-holiday rise driven by sentiment and expectations [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Iron ore futures opened at 784.0 CNY/ton, with intraday fluctuations leading to a high of 787.5 CNY and a low of 774.5 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 1.27% [1] - The overall market performance for iron ore is characterized by weak trading conditions and a downward trend [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Guodu Futures indicates that the iron ore price increase driven by sentiment has ended, with the market returning to a bearish supply-demand logic, suggesting a short-term weak price outlook and recommending light positions while monitoring policy changes [1] - Yide Futures notes a slight decline in iron ore prices, attributing it to slow supply release from Ximangdu and contrasting views on production cuts and speculative buying, while highlighting that high supply pressure and weak steel demand are suppressing prices [1] - Hundun Tiancai Futures analyzes the supply-demand fundamentals as showing reduced supply and stable demand, with decreasing iron ore inventories at steel mills but high steel inventories leading to negative feedback, predicting continued weak price fluctuations in the short term [1]