Core Viewpoint - Daiwa has adjusted Samsonite's (01910) earnings forecast for 2025 down by 2%, but raised the 2026 earnings forecast by 3% due to stronger recovery potential in the Asian and North American markets. The rating remains "Hold" due to a lack of catalysts and low visibility. However, a stronger recovery is expected in 2026 supported by global travel demand. The target price has been slightly increased from HKD 15 to HKD 16 [1][1][1] Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - The earnings forecast for 2025 has been reduced by 2% while the forecast for 2026 has been increased by 3% [1][1] - The expected revenue decline for Q3 is projected to narrow to 1.4%, aligning with management guidance [1][1] Group 2: Brand Performance - Tumi's overall performance is expected to improve, while American Tourister remains the weakest brand [1][1] - Adjusted EBITDA margin is anticipated to remain under pressure due to regional structural changes and operational deleveraging [1][1] Group 3: Market Insights - The gross margin and adjusted EBITDA margin are expected to decline by 0.7 and 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, reaching 58.6% and 17% respectively [1][1] - There is cautious optimism regarding the turnaround of the Indian business in 2026, as major competitors have undergone significant restructuring, potentially leading to more rational market competition [1][1] - The dual listing plan in the U.S. is believed to be progressing, but may not materialize until mid-2026 at the earliest [1][1]
大和：料新秀丽(01910)第三季收入跌幅收窄 目标价微升至16港元