美联储政策信号来了！鲍威尔发声：不会遵循“预设”

Core Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of understanding the Fed's balance sheet in the context of monetary policy effectiveness [1] - The speech provided a comprehensive overview of the Fed's balance sheet structure, recent actions, and future policy directions [1][2] Balance Sheet Overview - As of October 8, the Fed's total liabilities stood at $6.5 trillion, with $2.4 trillion in Federal Reserve notes, approximately $3 trillion in bank reserves, and $800 billion in the Treasury General Account, collectively accounting for about 95% of total liabilities [2] - The asset side includes $4.2 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities and $2.1 trillion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [2] - During the early COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed implemented unprecedented liquidity measures, including emergency lending tools and large-scale asset purchases, with a peak purchase rate of $1.2 trillion per month from March to June 2020 [2] Reflections on Asset Purchases - Powell acknowledged that the scale and timing of asset purchases during the recovery phase warrant reflection, suggesting that purchases could have been ended earlier [2] - He noted that the decision to continue purchases was based on a precautionary approach to mitigate downside risks, drawing lessons from past market turmoil [2][3] Reserve System Insights - Powell highlighted the critical role of reserves as the safest and most liquid asset in the banking system, essential for maintaining payment system resilience and overall economic stability [4] - Since June 2022, the Fed's balance sheet has contracted by $2.2 trillion, reducing its GDP ratio from 35% to below 22% [4] - The FOMC plans to halt balance sheet reduction once reserves are slightly above the "adequate" standard, closely monitoring repo rates and market liquidity indicators [4] Economic Outlook - Powell indicated that current economic growth may be slightly stronger than expected, while the labor market shows signs of cooling, with a low unemployment rate but significantly slowed job creation [7] - The core PCE index rose by 2.9% year-over-year in August, influenced by tariff-driven price increases rather than widespread inflationary pressures [7] - The Fed's recent policy decisions reflect a shift towards a "neutral policy stance," balancing employment and price stability amid economic uncertainties [7]