（经济观察）关税扰动难改A股中长期向上趋势

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the U.S. to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods has led to increased volatility in China's A-shares, but analysts believe this will not alter the long-term upward trend of the market [1][2]. Economic Impact - Despite a significant year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S. in September, China's total export value in U.S. dollars increased by 8.3% during the same period, indicating resilience [1]. - In the first three quarters, China's trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries reached 17.37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, accounting for 51.7% of total trade, up by 1.1 percentage points [1]. Market Reactions - Analysts suggest that the market's reaction to tariff announcements has become muted over time, as seen after previous tariff shocks in April and 2018 [2]. - The potential for a 100% tariff may serve more as a negotiation tactic rather than a definitive policy, with analysts expecting limited impact on A-shares compared to earlier tariff announcements [2]. Investment Outlook - The current environment is characterized by clearer boundaries regarding trade risks, and ongoing policy support for stabilizing the capital market, suggesting that external shocks will not derail market trends [3]. - The demand for quality assets remains strong, and any asset price declines due to external conflicts may present opportunities for increasing investments in Chinese assets [3]. - The restructuring of the global monetary order and the declining safety of U.S. dollar assets may lead to a revaluation of RMB assets, supporting a stable upward trend in A-shares [3].