关税扰动难改A股中长期向上趋势

Group 1 - The recent announcement by the US to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods has led to increased volatility in the Chinese A-share market, but analysts believe this will not change the long-term upward trend of the market [1][2] - Despite a significant year-on-year decline in exports to the US in September, China's overall export value in USD increased by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating resilience in the face of tariff impacts [1] - In the first three quarters, China's trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries reached 17.37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, accounting for 51.7% of total trade, suggesting limited impact from US tariffs [1] Group 2 - Analysts believe that the potential impact of the US's 100% tariff announcement on A-shares will be limited, as the market has become less sensitive to tariff shocks following previous trade tensions [2] - Historical data shows that high tariffs have not effectively changed trade dynamics, as evidenced by the significant drop in US imports from China after previous tariff increases [2] - Current trade risks are perceived to have clearer boundaries compared to earlier shocks, and ongoing policy signals are aimed at stabilizing the capital market, suggesting that external shocks will not derail market trends [3] Group 3 - The ongoing transformation of the Chinese economy, along with a decline in risk-free returns and capital market reforms, is creating a strong demand for quality assets, making any asset price declines due to external shocks a potential buying opportunity [3] - The restructuring of the global monetary order and the declining safety of dollar assets are expected to lead to a revaluation of RMB assets, supporting the long-term upward trajectory of the A-share market [3] - Upcoming policy planning related to the 14th Five-Year Plan and the positive fundamentals of the Chinese technology sector are expected to contribute to a stable and progressive market environment [3]