(经济观察)关税扰动难改A股中长期向上趋势

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement of increased tariffs by the U.S. on Chinese goods has led to heightened volatility in the A-share market, but analysts believe this will not alter the long-term upward trend of the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction and Economic Resilience - Following the recent tariff announcements, the A-share market rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% to surpass 3900 points [1]. - Analysts assert that China's strong economic fundamentals and resilience can withstand the impact of U.S. tariffs, as evidenced by a significant year-on-year increase of 8.3% in China's total exports in September, despite a notable decline in exports to the U.S. [1][2]. - In the first three quarters, China's trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries reached 17.37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, indicating a growing diversification in trade relationships [1]. Group 2: Limited Impact of Tariffs - Analysts, including Yuan Fang from Guotou Securities, believe that the impact of the newly announced 100% tariffs will be limited, as the market has become desensitized to tariff shocks following previous trade tensions [2]. - Historical context shows that high tariffs have often been used as negotiation tactics by the Trump administration, suggesting that the likelihood of these tariffs being fully implemented is low [2]. - The upcoming holiday season in the U.S. poses a risk of supply shortages for certain goods if the tariffs are enforced, which could lead to further negotiations [2]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Opportunities - Analysts emphasize that the current external shocks should be viewed as disturbances rather than threats to the overall market trend, with a clear boundary on trade risks compared to previous situations [3]. - The ongoing transformation of the Chinese economy, along with a decline in risk-free returns and capital market reforms, creates a strong demand for quality assets, making current market dips potential buying opportunities [3]. - The restructuring of the global monetary order and the declining safety of U.S. dollar assets are expected to lead to a revaluation of RMB assets, supporting a stable upward trajectory for the A-share market [3].