After Big Rally, What's Next For Applied Digital Stock?

Core Insights - Applied Digital is a digital infrastructure company focused on AI-first data centers and high-performance computing facilities, with a stock increase of nearly 20% over the past five trading days and a year-to-date gain of approximately 330% [2] - The company reported first-quarter sales of $64.2 million, reflecting an 84% year-over-year increase, driven by the demand for AI data centers [2] - Applied Digital's valuation is close to $10 billion, with the stock trading at an elevated 33x forward revenue, raising questions about the sustainability of its recent rally [2] Company Operations - Applied Digital constructs purpose-built AI data centers designed for high power density, cooling, and scalability, differentiating itself from traditional data centers [4] - The company integrates advanced power systems and renewable energy into its facilities, ensuring efficiency and sustainability [4] - The Polaris Forge 2 campus in North Dakota is a significant $3 billion project expected to provide 280 megawatts of capacity, with operations anticipated to start in early 2027 [4] Market Position - Major tech companies, including Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, are projected to invest over $380 billion in AI-related capital expenditures by 2025, creating a favorable environment for Applied Digital to gain market share [5] - Unlike traditional providers, Applied Digital builds and operates its own AI and HPC data centers, leasing capacity to AI hyperscalers and large enterprises [5] Strategic Partnerships - A notable partnership with CoreWeave includes a $7 billion lease agreement, expanded by an additional 150 megawatts, raising expected contracted lease revenue to approximately $11 billion [6] - The company is enhancing its service offerings through the Applied Digital Cloud, providing GPU-as-a-Service in collaboration with Nvidia and Supermicro [6] Growth Projections - The company is expected to experience rapid growth, with consensus estimates indicating approximately 40% revenue growth for 2026 and around 80% growth for 2027 [7] - The increasing demand for data centers tailored for GPU compute is anticipated to enhance long-term profitability [7] Competitive Landscape - The market for AI data center services is becoming more competitive, with traditional hyperscalers and cloud providers expanding their own capacities, which may impact margins and customer acquisition [8]