天风·固收 | 对比4月，转债TACO交易再现？

Core Viewpoint - The short-term upward elasticity of equities is limited, making it difficult for the inflow of funds to continue boosting convertible bond valuations. It is recommended to maintain a neutral to low position and wait for opportunities, focusing on low-priced convertible bonds that resonate with terms, especially those in the export chain that may be affected by tariff policies, which could present numerous TACO trading opportunities [1][8]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact and Market Reactions - In early April, the market experienced panic selling due to the announcement of tariffs by the U.S. government, leading to significant declines in A-shares, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 7.34% on April 7. Convertible bonds followed suit, with the weighted index of convertible bonds falling over 12% [2]. - Following the initial panic, the market began to recover on April 8, driven by a focus on expanding domestic demand and self-sufficiency, with the convertible bond index rebounding by 2.45% from April 8 to April 11 [2][3]. Sector Performance in Convertible Bonds - The performance of convertible bonds varied significantly across sectors during April. Industries with high external demand, such as advanced manufacturing and electronics, saw deeper declines and weaker rebounds compared to others. For instance, the electronics and home appliances sectors experienced over a 15% drop, followed by a mere 5% rebound [4]. - Conversely, sectors with balanced internal and external demand, such as defense, computing, and pharmaceuticals, showed strong rebounds after the initial declines [4]. Export Chain Convertible Bonds - The performance of export chain convertible bonds also varied, with some, like those in the chemical and textile sectors, showing resilience and good rebound performance despite earlier declines. For example, the Li Min and Su Li convertible bonds in the chemical sector had lower declines and performed well in the subsequent rebound [6]. - However, sectors like consumer electronics and medical outsourcing saw deeper initial declines and weaker recovery in the rebound phase [6]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The TACO trading opportunities re-emerged in April due to unexpected changes in tariff policies, leading to high volatility in asset prices. As of late September, the market saw a decrease in convertible bond holdings by insurance institutions and other major holders, but public funds increased their positions, keeping convertible bond valuations relatively high [7]. - Looking ahead, the consensus is forming around a recovery in micro-enterprise performance, with a focus on high-priced equity strategies and small-cap growth convertible bonds in sectors like AI, semiconductors, and military electronics [8].