Oil steadies as market weighs excess supply and US-China trade tensions

Core Insights - Oil prices stabilized after reaching five-month lows, influenced by the International Energy Agency's forecast of a potential supply surplus in 2026 and ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China [1][2] Oil Market Overview - The International Energy Agency projected a global oil surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day for the next year, driven by increased output from OPEC+ and sluggish demand [2] - Analysts noted that the market is currently focused on excess supply amid mixed demand signals, with geopolitical risks diminishing and trade tensions exerting additional pressure on prices [2] Trade Tensions Impact - The U.S.-China trade dispute has escalated, with both nations imposing additional port fees on cargo ships, which is expected to increase trading costs and disrupt freight flows, potentially lowering economic output [3] - Recent actions include China announcing increased export controls on rare earth materials and U.S. President Trump threatening to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 100% [4] U.S. Demand Indicators - Traders are awaiting weekly inventory data, with expectations that U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose by approximately 200,000 barrels in the week ending October 10 [5] - The American Petroleum Institute's weekly report and the U.S. Energy Information Administration's data are anticipated, both delayed due to the recent holiday [6]