Options Corner: UAL Example Earnings Trade

Core Insights - United Airlines has significantly outperformed the industrial sector and other airlines, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 61-62% [2][9] - JetBlue is identified as the laggard in the airline industry, which is facing similar cost and demand factors [3] Technical Analysis - Recent price action for United Airlines shows a stabilization around the $93 level, which has previously acted as a support area [5] - A notable trend line was broken, leading to a new moderately sloping trend line, indicating a shift in price dynamics [4] - The expected price movement for United Airlines by November 21st is projected to be within a 13% range, with a low end around $93 and a high end at approximately $121.60 [8] Options Strategy - A complex options strategy is proposed, combining a short put vertical and a bullish call calendar to capitalize on potential price movements while managing risk [11][13] - The strategy involves selling an out-of-the-money put vertical and a call calendar, allowing for a credit collection that finances the bullish position [14] - The break-even point for this strategy is set at approximately $99.80, providing a cushion of about 4% below the current share price [15][16]