IMF警告财政金融“恶性循环”风险 呼吁加大教育投资以缓解债务压力

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns of a significant rise in global government debt, predicting that by 2029, the debt-to-GDP ratio will exceed 100%, the highest level since 1948 [1] - In a "downside but plausible" scenario, this ratio could reach 123%, approaching the post-World War II peak of 132% [1] - The IMF highlights the risk of a "vicious cycle" between fiscal and financial instability, reminiscent of the 2010 European sovereign debt crisis [1] Group 1 - Developed economies are under severe debt pressure, with countries like the US, Japan, and the UK having government debt exceeding 100% of GDP [1] - The US debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to surpass 140% by the end of this decade (2029) [1] - Rising borrowing costs, significantly higher than the ultra-low rates from the 2008 financial crisis to the 2020 pandemic, exacerbate the debt repayment burden [1] Group 2 - The IMF proposes structural responses, suggesting that developed economies invest 1% of GDP in education, potentially increasing GDP by over 3% by 2050 [2] - Emerging markets and developing economies could see nearly double the growth benefits through human capital investment [2] - The IMF urges countries to "act immediately" to build fiscal buffers and enhance resilience before severe economic turmoil occurs [2]