英国失业率升至4.8% 劳动力市场疲软引爆降息预期

Core Points - The UK unemployment rate has increased from 4.7% to 4.8%, indicating clear signs of weakness in the labor market [1] - This change is rapidly influencing monetary policy expectations, significantly increasing market bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England within the year [1] - Analysts from TwentyFour Asset Management suggest that the weak labor data provides the Bank of England with more room to initiate a rate cut sooner than previously anticipated [1] - Following the data release, the probability of a rate cut in December surged from 33% to 47%, reflecting investors' reassessment of the UK's monetary policy trajectory [1] - Despite the Bank of England's long-standing emphasis on prioritizing inflation control, the cooling labor market may weaken wage growth momentum, thereby alleviating core inflation pressures [1] - Policymakers may face a re-evaluation between maintaining high rates to combat inflation and mitigating economic downturn risks [1] - Currently, the Bank of England has not provided clear signals regarding the December meeting, but ongoing weakness in employment data could be a critical trigger for a policy shift [1]