胜人者有力 自胜者强——对关税影响的理解

Core Viewpoint - The recent tariff tensions initiated by the Trump administration are not expected to have a significant long-term impact on the market, as the real determinants of Chinese asset performance are domestic economic and policy developments [1][5]. Group 1: Impact of Tariff Policies - The tariff disputes initiated in April led to a significant drop in global risk assets, but a quick policy softening by the Trump administration resulted in a rebound, with major asset prices returning to pre-tariff levels within about a month [1][2]. - The U.S. government faces internal pressures that make it difficult to maintain high tariffs in the long term, as such policies contradict economic principles and can lead to adverse effects on the U.S. economy and financial markets [2][3]. Group 2: China's Competitive Edge - China's supply-side competitiveness remains strong, and emerging economies are unlikely to quickly replace China's manufacturing capabilities, which limits the effectiveness of U.S. tariffs [2][3]. - Following the April tariff experiment, China has gained valuable experience in responding to such external pressures, leading to more effective policy measures and support for risk assets [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Expectations - The market has developed a "memory" of the previous tariff impacts, which may lead to a more measured response to current tensions, as investors recall the rapid recovery following the April tariffs [4]. - Current macroeconomic confidence and expectations in China are stronger than in April, supported by effective policy measures and a resilient supply-side [4].