美联储理事米兰：美国经济下行风险上升 应加快降息步伐

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve faces increased downside risks to the U.S. economy, necessitating adjustments in monetary policy to return the federal funds rate to a neutral level [1][3] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The current trade uncertainties, particularly regarding rare earth trade tensions, have heightened risks to the economic outlook compared to a week ago [1][3] - The economic outlook itself has not deteriorated, but risks have indeed increased [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve should not engage in political issues and must maintain its independence, focusing on price stability and full employment [1] - A reasonable target range for the federal funds rate should be approximately two percentage points lower than the current range of 4.00% to 4.25% [1] - The expectation is for two more rate cuts within the year, despite a personal inclination for more aggressive cuts [2] Group 3: Inflation Expectations - The overall Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation is expected to decline to 2% within about a year and a half, with housing inflation likely to slow down due to reduced immigration and delayed effects of housing cost adjustments [2] Group 4: Data Dependency - The Federal Reserve aims to rely more on economic forecasts rather than solely on current data, although forecasts depend on data availability [1] - The next Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is scheduled for release on October 24, 2025 [1]