芝加哥联储：高收入群体支撑消费动能 9月美国零售销售或继续增长

Core Insights - The Chicago Federal Reserve's latest retail trade forecast indicates that U.S. retail sales (excluding automobiles and parts) are expected to continue growing in September, although some of the increase reflects the impact of rising prices [1] - The report estimates a seasonally adjusted month-on-month retail sales growth of 0.5% for September, slightly lower than August's 0.7% [1] - After adjusting for inflation, the actual retail sales growth (excluding automobiles) is estimated at only 0.2% for September, down from 0.3% in August, aligning with most independent economists' predictions [1] Consumer Spending Trends - Retail spending in the U.S. is primarily driven by high-income households, whose financial conditions remain robust due to growth in financial markets and real estate wealth, along with strong wage growth [1] - In contrast, middle- and low-income households are facing more pressure, with middle-income groups squeezed by rising prices and tightening credit conditions, while low-income families are directly affected by job slowdowns and weak wage growth [1] - According to EY-Parthenon, consumers are increasingly fatigued by high prices and are becoming more cautious in their spending, focusing on value and necessities while reducing discretionary spending [2] Income Group Spending Dynamics - Data from the Bank of America Research Institute shows that in September, spending by low-income households increased by only 0.6% year-on-year, while spending by middle- and high-income households rose by 1.6% and 2.6%, respectively [2] - High-income households' consumption is driven not only by wage growth but also by the "wealth effect," where increases in the S&P 500 index lead to a significantly higher increase in discretionary spending among the top 5% of income earners compared to middle-income groups [2]