BNY's Vincent Reinhart: ‘Powell is trying to get away from a problem by ending balance sheet runoff'

分组1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to stop quantitative tightening in a matter of months to maintain liquidity in money markets [2][3] - There is uncertainty regarding the number of rate cuts, with discussions leaning towards two quarter-point hikes this year and more potential changes next year depending on personnel [4][3] - Recent bankruptcies in the auto sector raise concerns about systemic risks, although the current economic expansion has not shown significant deterioration in balance sheets [5][7][8] 分组2 - The current economic environment is characterized by a long stretch of risk-taking by investors, which could lead to mistakes during hot market conditions [6][7] - The expansion phase is not expected to end simply due to age, and the economy is described as being more resilient than in previous cycles [10][8] - The macro economy is likely to absorb sector-specific shocks, such as those from government shutdowns, due to the larger size of the private sector [14][15]