Russia’s Fuel Shortages Ripple Across Central Asia

Core Insights - Russia is experiencing fuel shortages and price increases due to Ukrainian attacks on its oil refineries, leading to export restrictions on gasoline and diesel [1] - Central Asian countries, particularly Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, are heavily impacted by these restrictions, facing rising fuel prices and supply challenges [2][4] Group 1: Tajikistan's Situation - Tajikistan, reliant on Russian fuel imports, has seen gasoline prices rise sharply, with a liter costing up to $1.30, the highest in Central Asia [2] - The country is diversifying its energy consumption, with many vehicles switching to liquefied natural gas or electric power, although it still expects to import 500,000 tons of gasoline from Russia by year-end, up from 451,000 tons in 2024 [3] Group 2: Kyrgyzstan's Vulnerability - Kyrgyzstan imports over 90% of its gasoline and diesel from Russia and has faced price hikes and supply delays since the summer [4] - The country is vulnerable due to its dependence on Russian imports, with limited alternatives available that would require significant investment [5] Group 3: Uzbekistan's Strategy - Uzbekistan continues to import Russian fuel but is increasing imports from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to reduce reliance on Russia [6] - Despite having large oil reserves, Uzbekistan lacks the infrastructure to significantly boost production, with output at around 63,000 barrels per day in 2024 [6]