Tesla demand in focus after Trump policies lead GM, Ford to retreat from EV ambitions

Core Insights - The electric vehicle (EV) industry is facing significant challenges due to the expiration of federal tax credits, leading to reduced demand and financial write-downs from major automakers [3][10][13] - Tesla, while still the largest EV seller in the U.S., is experiencing a decline in market share and brand value amid increasing competition [4][18] - Analysts predict a revenue growth of 3.5% for Tesla in the third quarter, but a potential revenue drop in the fourth quarter and a full-year decline for 2025 [10][11] Industry Challenges - Ford's CEO anticipates a 50% reduction in demand for fully electric vehicles following the end of the federal tax credit program [2] - Stellantis has abandoned its goal of producing only electric vehicles in Europe by 2030, indicating a broader retreat among legacy automakers from aggressive EV targets [2][3] - The expiration of the $7,500 tax credit has created uncertainty in the market, impacting consumer purchasing behavior [3][12] Tesla's Market Position - Tesla's market share in the all-electric segment has decreased from 49% at the end of last year to 43.1% by the end of September [4] - Despite a recent 7% year-over-year increase in vehicle deliveries for the third quarter, Tesla faces challenges from reduced battery electric vehicle sales and lower margins [11][7] - The company has introduced lower-cost variants of its Model Y and Model 3 to mitigate the impact of the loss of incentives [4][12] Investor Sentiment - Following a 36% decline in the first quarter, Tesla's stock has rebounded, showing a 7% increase for the year, partly due to Elon Musk's $1 billion stock purchase [8] - Investors remain cautiously optimistic about Tesla's future, although the overall EV market appears to be contracting [18] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the retreat of legacy automakers could benefit Tesla, potentially allowing its market share to recover [6] - However, significant challenges remain, including a likely dramatic decrease in interest for battery electric vehicles in the fourth quarter due to pre-expiration demand pull-ahead [7] - Tesla's future growth may hinge on its ventures into robotaxis and humanoid robotics, although these markets have yet to be fully developed [16][17]