基本面利空持续发酵国际原油价格弱势恐难改

Core Viewpoint - The international oil market has experienced significant volatility in October, with Brent crude futures dropping to a low of $61.5 per barrel and WTI crude futures falling below $58 per barrel, marking a decline of over 5% for the month [1][2] Market Dynamics - Short-term fluctuations in oil prices are heavily influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, with recent geopolitical developments and trade uncertainties contributing to market instability [2][3] - The global economy is showing signs of weak recovery without entering a recession, and the Federal Reserve's preventive rate cuts are providing some liquidity support to the oil market, but this is insufficient to counteract the bearish fundamentals [1][2] Supply and Demand Factors - The oil market is facing increasing pressure from both supply and demand sides, with OPEC+ continuing to increase production while demand is experiencing seasonal declines, leading to a supply surplus [1][4] - The recent ceasefire agreement in Gaza has reduced geopolitical risk support for oil prices, while ongoing uncertainties in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Venezuela still pose potential risks [3][4] Price Support Levels - Analysts suggest that Brent crude futures are currently in a low range of $60 to $65 per barrel, with a critical support level around $60 per barrel, which corresponds to the marginal cost of U.S. shale oil production [4][5] - A potential scenario of a cold winter in Europe combined with renewed conflicts in the Middle East could push Brent crude prices above $72 per barrel [4][5] Future Outlook - The supply side will remain the dominant factor in oil pricing, with OPEC+ maintaining its production increase policy, although actual increments may not meet targets, which could weaken market impacts [5] - The expectation of a supply surplus persists, with Brent crude futures anticipated to fluctuate between $60 and $75 per barrel unless significant geopolitical disruptions occur [5]